Go-Ahead

MMM: How Go-Ahead got passengers back on the bus: using MMM to isolate and quantify the drivers of demand growth

Background

Go-Ahead is an international transport group and one of the UK’s leading rail and bus transport providers.   Go-Ahead’s rail operation is responsible for over 18% of all UK train passenger journeys.  Go-Ahead is the largest operator of bus services in London and outside the capital their buses account for about 11% of the UK market.

 

Solution

Project Summary

Bus ticket sales have seen significant growth over the last few years. However public transport was recovering from unprecedent times as the world emerged from Covid and got to grips with a whole new way of living and working. At the same time the economy was experiencing a cost of living crisis whilst the bus category was launching new government backed fare policies as part of a wider pro-public transport approach.

Against this backdrop Go-Ahead was dialling up its own communications programme, with a mix of brand, promotional and service messaging delivered across paid, owned and earned channels.

The business was keen to understand the role of marketing across this changing landscape. The project focused on two of the group’s biggest brands: Brighton & Hove Buses on the south coast and Metrobus which operates in the Surrey area. The key challenge was to identify the role of communications in sales growth. Was paid media delivering a positive contribution?  Which channels were most effective? Had this changed pre and post Covid? Is there now a new relationship between paid and owned media pointing to a new strategic focus?

The project involved some knotty measurement challenges; including untangling paid from owned media assets amongst Go-Ahead’s extensive OOH inventory. This involved drawing on our media and industry network to get the right versions of media delivery data.

 

Outputs

Both brands experienced triple digit growth in the period post Covid. We were able to isolate and quantify the drivers of this growth. Key themes included:

  • The contribution of the Covid bounce to recovery
  • The impact of wider cost of living and consumer confidence on performance
  • The specific effect of petrol prices and car insurance on bus ticket sales
  • The success of the government backed £2 fare scheme in leveraging post Covid behaviours
  • The significant contribution of owned and earned channels used both to deliver service messages and promotional messages
  • The positive ROI of paid media channels used to support initiatives such as £2 fare and wider branding and pro-bus campaigns

 

Other brands within the group have already benefited from MMM. Now Brighton & Hove Buses and MetroBus have the insights to compete for resources and make the case for profitable media led growth. The results inform:

  • Budget setting to achieve performance objectives
  • The role of owned and earned channels in the mix
  • Channel rankings for the individual brands
  • How to leverage seasonality and optimise media phasing
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